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Are We Really Close to a Nuclear War With North Korea?
What Could We Do If All Hell Brakes Loose?
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Introduction
We have not been as close as we are in this moment to start a Nuclear War since the days of the Cuba
Crisis in 1962. The Cuban Missile Crisis, also known as the October Crisis (Spanish: Crisis de Octubre),
the Caribbean Crisis or the Missile Scare. It was a confrontation lasting 13 days in October 1962. From
October 16 to October 28, 1962 the United States and the Soviet Union were in a very high crisis
concerning American ballistic missiles deployment in Italy and Turkey with consequent Soviet ballistic
missiles deployment in Cuba (90 miles from the United States). The confrontation is often considered
the closest the Cold War came to escalating into a full-scale nuclear war. At the end of the crisis the
world was saved from complete destruction thanks to both Nikita Khrushchev and John F Kennedy.
Both leaders exhibited restrain, political maturity and a full vision of what a nuclear war would do to
the entire world. Thanks to these two individuals is that we all exist today.
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September 19 2017
The North Korea crisis we are living these days seems to be much worse than the crisis the world experienced in 1962. On the one hand, we have a
regime fully armed with nuclear devices, a gigantic arsenal of conventional and biological weapons led by a leader that has clearly decided not to stop his
armament program despite international pressure. In the opinion of Mr. Vladimir Putin, “North Korea is willing to eat grass of needed.”
On the other hand, we have Mr. Donald Trump who has promised to the American people and to the world, to fix what the United States see as an
unacceptable situation to permit North Korea to develop the capabilities to reach the United States with a nuclear weapon.
Members of Donald Trump’s administration have repeatedly signaled that they
might be willing to use military force against North Korea—even if it inflicted on
the Korean peninsula the worst human catastrophe in living memory—if it meant
preventing Kim Jong Un from acquiring the capability to strike the United States
with a nuclear weapon.
In August of this 2017, Mr. Trump said “North Korea best not make any more
threats to the United States. They will be met with fire, fury, and frankly power,
the likes of which this world has never seen before.”
Mr. Trump’s statement offers elements of concern. This statement was
pronounced the very same day a report produced by the U.S. intelligence
suggesting that North Korea has produced a nuclear warhead small enough to be
placed on a missile, and just days after North Korea tested its second
intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM. Taken together, these data points indicate that the North Korean government has already developed—or is
quite close to developing—a nuclear weapon that can hit parts of the U.S. Specifically Hawaii, California, Oregon or Washington State.
When asking the question, are we really close to a nuclear war against North Korea? The answer rests in several components and conditions, however, at
the end of all analysis and expert opinions, what we have are two individuals fighting to prevail upon their own opinion.
Taking into consideration two key factors of this crisis: First, Mr. Trump’s temperament and potentially his lack of understanding of what a nuclear war
may be. Second, the inflexibility displayed by Mr. Kim Jong-Un and his lack of concern for the wellness of his own countrymen.
North Korea allies can and are willing to co-exist with a North Korea as a Nuclear Power. Russia and China amongst the most important allies of Mr. Kim
Jong-Un have both condemned North Korea’s testing and missile launch towards the see of Japan. Nevertheless, both countries are willing to coexist
with the reality that North Korea is now a Nuclear Power.
In addition to Russia and China, North Korea has established important diplomatic, military and commercial relationship in Africa and Asia. Weapons
factories have been set up in Madagascar, The Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia and Uganda, for instance. North Korean-provided police training is
also popular in Benin, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Nigeria. And Egypt and Libya buy North Korea’s ballistic missile manufacturing lines.
It is clear that Mr. Trump has encapsulated himself in rhetoric and statements that are now seen as the “Red Line” crossing of president Obama on Syria
utilization of chemical weapons on their own citizens. At the same time, North Korea keeps launching missiles, producing and testing more weapon
calling Mr. Trump a bluff.
If this pattern continues one of two options will take place:
First. Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim Jong-Un will continue antagonizing each other up to the point that becomes the signature of both administrations. We will
see more provocations and political insults coming and going with no substantial consequences other than the political domestic boiling and naturally
hundreds of hours of news and television coverage.
Second. Stupidity prevails and a war begins in the Korean Peninsula.
1. If the United States launches a preemptive attack on North Korea, this need to be
massive, total neutralization of the country in one operation in minutes, no battles, no
small little attacks here and there. If North Korea is not completely neutralized in one
operation, the retaliatory attack will evaporate South Korea, Japan, Guam and one or
more major cities in the West Coast of the United States such as Los Angeles, San
Francisco, San Diego or Seattle.
2. It is difficult to predict the reactions of China and Russia. These two countries are
powerful in that they have a gigantic cloud of political and economic influence on the
world. There is no continent where these two nations do not have allies and established
economic ties.
3. Reactions from other nations like Iran and Egypt are also difficult to foresee, however, their dislike towards Israel and the U.S. may produce violence
toward Israel. These actions could also unchain a military escalation in the region of the Middle East.
4. If the preemptive attack unto North Korea does not neutralize the country in a few minutes, they will launch a counterattack of gigantic proportions
including a ground assault against South Korea after a massive bombardment of South Korea’s nuclear reactors in the south.
Missiles will be launching carrying biological serums destine to Japan, Guam and South Korea. Intercontinental vehicles will carry nuclear heads towards
Japan and the United States.
For residents of the west coast of the United States there is no evacuation time. If the ICBMs launched all the way from North Korea are not stopped in
trajectory to the U.S. there is a window of about forty minutes before the detonation over any of the cities mentioned before.
In the first few hours since the U.S. preemptive attack, there will be an approximation of 50 million people dead.
What is Next?
The situation within the United States will be like extracted from one of those
Science Fiction movies where the economic system is collapsed, stores are
completely empty, gas stations empty, law enforcement mostly absent, electric
grids destroyed, emergency services worthless, banks closed and a massive
amount of people from neighbor states moving east and south to Mexico. Add
to this a radioactive cloud moving from east to west at a decent speed.
Consumable goods will be hard to get, fuel and electric power will not be
available and civil unrest will erupt in many cities across the nation.
In the Americas, life as we know it will cease to exist in Canada, Unites States
and Mexico. By the same token, life in the Korean Peninsula, China, Russia,
Japan, Guam, Taiwan and other nearby nations will no longer be the same. The
effects of radiation will kill a large portion of the population as time passes and
radioactive clouds move toward the east coast of the United States, north into
Canada and south into Mexico.
The same conditions are to be experience in China, Russia, Japan and Guam. In
the few weeks after the first attack, an approximation of 200 million people will
be displaced from their places of residence in U.S., Canada and Mexico. Similar
population displacement will be observed in Asia.
There will be serious repercussions around the entire world in every single human activity that we take for granted today.
Things We Need To Know.
June 25 1950 marks the beginning of hostilities between North Korea and South Korea. The Korean War began when North Korea invaded South Korea.
The United Nations, with the United States as the principal force, came to the aid of South Korea. China came to the aid of North Korea, and the Soviet
Union gave some assistance. War ended on July 27 1953.
This brief capsule of history defines what will happen again if today the United States launches an attack over North Korea. History shows who is who in
the conflict, who the allies are and who the enemies are as well.
Since July 27 1953, North Korea has always represented the bravado regime, the “Macho Man” of the picture, the vociferous “Commandant” ready for
action. The world has 64 years listening to the brave men of the north and for 64 years the nations of the world have refused to get engaged in the game
of North Korea.
What is that Mr. Trump needs to do!
The depiction of what will it happen in the event of an American attack on North Korea offered a few paragraphs ago, is not even a shadow compared to
the reality some will experience and see.
Of all potential options president Trump has in his list of alternatives, two of them are not the paths to follow:
•
A military path is not the one to select, and
•
Do not collapse North Korea either.
Anything else is valid and viable. Avoiding the complete collapse of the world and avoid the complete collapse of the regime as in doing it, it may trigger a
violent act from North Korea producing precisely what the world wants to avoid.
